Stop the Lies ... Please!

Tuesday, February 4th, the SLO County Board of Supervisors will make a major decision regarding conversion … they will decide whether the original survey of support  was valid or a new one should be done.  This decision will dramatically impact the future of the conversion.

ATTEND THE MEETING: If you want the choices conversion offers, 

the Board of Supervisors needs to hear about YOUR voice. 

Come to the meeting on February 4th at 1:00 pm and speak up 

or at least let them know that you want the option 

and do not believe a new survey would solve any problems (which it won't).

YOUR VOICE COUNTS: Right now, the irrational voices are shouting loudly 

and the Supervisors think they represent everyone in the park.  They don't.

RIDES AVAILABLE: If you want a ride or more information, please call 

Joanne Mancarella to join us for lunch at 11:00 am Tuesday.

EMAIL IF YOU CAN'T ATTEND: If you can't go to the meeting, you can still 

send an email stating your position but it must be received by Monday, Feb 1.

Email me at jwycoff@me.com and I'll send you the format

preferred by the Supervisors.

******* Just as a refresher *******

The Survey: 166 people responded to the original survey and 99 said they supported the process.  And, regardless of what the HOA Board now says, they approved the survey.  A lot of us were in the meeting room when Susy asked if there was a Board quorum present and if the Board approved the format of the survey.  The Board said yes and asked for an extra week so people could respond. No objections were registered.

This is NOT a "forced conversion."  The HOA Board loves to use the words "forced conversion" as if there were a gun at someone's head forcing them to buy their lots.  Purchasing your lot is completely optional!  It gives those who want to buy the option and leaves everyone else in basically the same position they are now … with some lower income folks and over-80 residents actually in a better rent condition.

What happens if a new survey is NOT needed?  This doesn't mean that the conversion is approved … it means the process moves to the next step and we have the opportunity to negotiate better terms. (There are two more things I want to ask for that would make this conversion truly attractive to all. It is far less likely that we will get these additional benefits if the owners are forced to go to court or do a new survey.)

What happens if new survey IS required? We don't know what the owners might decide … they could take the issue to court and spend a ton of money in legal fees … they could delay the conversion for a number of years (at which time real estate prices would undoubtedly be even higher than they are now) … they could decide to sell to a hedge fund that would run the park in a way that would maximize their profits … they might even decide to do the new survey (however, with the flood of misinformation that has been poured into the park by the HOA Board, this is not likely.)

                                           ******* STOP THE BULLIES *******

In any important change, there are differences of opinions.  Discussing those differences leads to better outcomes for everyone.

That is not what has happened here in the park.  The HOA Board has been hijacked by some very loud and self-interested individuals who have proceeded to bully anyone who disagreed with them.  Their record is almost incredible …

• They have refused to meet in any sort of open forum when invited by Supervisor Caren Ray.
• They have sabotaged one public meeting through hostile calls to invited experts.
• They have lied about their ability to get a "fair" price for the lots and claimed they could get a ridiculous price that has no relationship to the actual market or what any expert or professional would say is fair.
• They have lied about my role in this process, calling me a "plant" of the lawyers and saying that I was being paid or getting my lot for free. (Not true.)
• They have lied about what Richard Laxton at Murphy Bank said.
• They have lied about the space rent benefit for seniors over-80 being "age discrimination."
• They have lied about the impact of conversion on the value of our homes. (Look at Knollwood or any other area park that has converted.) They actually put this lie in print saying that "everyone would lose an average of $100,000 or more on their homes."
• They have lied on television about people "fleeing the park." (Sales numbers and prices have changed little over the past 3 years and one unit just sold in 3 days for full price.)
• They have lied about what would happen to rents, waving scary "market rate" rent numbers in the air like a red flag when few … if any … residents would be effected by "market rate," which over half the park is already at.
• They have attacked and lied about Susy Forbath, Richard Close, the owners,  John Wallace, me, the office staff, the park maintenance people, the bankers, the area real estate professionals and probably others I don't know about.

How many "they lieds" does it take before we realize these people 

are bullies and not worthy of our trust???

There's only one way to stop bullies … stand up to them, join forces in rejecting lies, find out the truth … and speak up to the Board of Supervisors who are being led to believe these same lies … and thinking they represent everyone in the park.

What Are the Facts? #3 "They're Giving them Away!"

Decision Tree

Once more the HOA Board is playing fast and loose with numbers and facts.  At last night's meeting, they said that there have been "40 home sales in the past year … more than ever before."  That part is almost true -- there were 25 sales in 2013, however there were 23 in 2012 (I guess that takes it out of the realm of even "almost true."  Do they ever bother to even look at actual reports?)

Fallacy: Residents are "giving their units away."

Where the HOA Board's message really went off base, however, was when they said that the reason there are so many sales is because the conversion has scared the residents so badly that they are "giving their units away." 

I have been following park sales closely to try to determine what effect, if any, conversion is having on sales and sales prices.  I knew what the HOA Board was saying wasn't true as of October, 2013, but I wanted to make sure nothing had changed since then so I asked for a new set of official sales reports*.  I'll update this post as the 2014 sales are available.

Here's an interesting breakdown:

Year          Total Sales          High          Low       Average

2012                  23               200,000     22,500       82,124

2013                  25               142,000     30,000       75,722     

2013 AC*          16               142,000     30,000       82,950                                      

AC* - After Conversion - In other words 16 of the 25 sales made in 2013 were made after 7/1/2013 when buyers were informed of conversion.  Those sales had the low for the year as well as the high but the average sale price was actually somewhat higher than pre-conversion and the difference between 2012 and 2013 was minimal. 

At this point, I don't see that conversion is having much of an impact at all on sales, quantity or price.

Another thing to keep in mind is that, for a sale to take place, there is a seller and a buyer.  I've talked to a lot of the residents who purchased after the conversion was announced and they seem to be quite excited about the possibility of buying their lots, and for some it was a major consideration in making their purchase decision.

* Thanks Connie Winstead who reminds me that the numbers do not reflect "Sale by Owners" but says those are very rare.

Meetings

Last sunset of 2013

HOA Meeting Tuesday, 1/14/2014, 6:30 pm, upper clubhouse.  Maybe we'll hear some of the results of the committee meetings Jeff McAllister was hosting in December. 

Board of Supervisors Meeting, Tuesday, February 4, 9:00 a.m., 1055 Monterey St., Room #D170.  This is a public meeting focused on the conversion survey.

The question I've asked for months is:  what would a new survey accomplish? 

The only answer I can come up with is that it's just a way to stop the conversion.  However, since 166 of us seemed to understand the survey well enough to complete it, I don't understand why our votes are going to be tossed aside. 

What Are the Facts #2: The Space Rent Limit for Over-80 Residents Is Real! … or Was!

Just another January day at the beach.

I've had a number of residents ask me about the space rent limit for over-80 residents.  They report being told that it's "not real because it's not in writing." Or it's "not real because it's age discrimination so it would never hold up in court."

Balderdash!

#1.  Susy Forbath put this policy in writing in a green sheet she put out to all residents in the tubes on November 19, 2013.  (See below for verbatim wordage.)

#2.  If this is age discrimination, the same goes for McDonalds, the movies and every other business that offers senior discounts. (Some start at 55, some at 62, 65 or some other threshold determined by the business.)

#3.  In order for this not to "stand up in court," someone would have to sue.  What kind of a person would try to take away a benefit such as this from a senior citizen?  It would have to be a resident of this park to have any hopes of claiming "damages."  I don't think so … to at least I sure hope this isn't something that one of our neighbors would do.

Here's the statement that came out from Susy on  Gilchrist & Rutter stationery, November 19, 2013:

If approved by SLO County before January 1, 2014 and no appeal to the County is filed, starting the month after County approval, space rent for any resident homeowner 80 years of age or older at the time at the time of conversion will be increased by no more than 1% per year, not to ever exceed a compounded increase of more than $100 during the length of tenancy.

Officially … since the HOA and their lawyer appealed the conversion and succeeded in convincing the County to deem the application incomplete because of questions about the survey of support … this benefit to seniors is off the table.

However, conversations with Susy Forbath indicate that, if the application is deemed complete by the County, it will be reinstated.

Let Us Remember

Remembering

On this day, chosen to celebrate the birth of a child of wisdom, a day that grew big enough to include people of all lands and all faiths into a universal embrace of peace and goodwill, let us remember.

Let us remember the lonely who are far from loved ones; let us remember those who are no longer with us but touched us with their love and spirit; let us remember the sick and injured and those who sacrifice this day of celebration to care for them; let us remember all who left a piece of themselves on a foreign battlefield; let us remember those who have no homes filled with lights and ribbons and bows tied around bright bits of love and joy; let us remember the hungry and hopeless; let us remember all who stand just outside the warmth of all Hallmark moments.

Today I celebrate with a woman who spent last year alone in a wheel chair, wondering if she would walk again, wondering if life was worth the effort, and a man who recently lost his wife and finds this time more bitter than sweet.  Together we will watch the story of a man who lost himself in fantasy and remind ourselves to remember sweet times and be grateful for the beauty of this day and the gift of living it.

Let us take this time to remember ... and re-member our spirits, our bodies, our communities and our world. 

What Are the Facts: #1 "18 Inches of Dirt"

Christmas Pumpkins

Last night's HOA meeting was, overall, a gentler meeting than we've experienced in the past. Questions and strong opinions were exchanged and a few new voices were heard.  If we could continue to meet in this manner, we might eventually establish a bedrock of facts that we could all stand on confidently. 

In the meantime though, we still seem to be focused primarily on opinion, fear and speculation. Large, public meetings do not give us enough time to explore thoroughly the facts that these complex questions require. 

I believe we all want the same thing … reliable information that will help us make our own decisions, an understanding of our rights and protections and a sense that we are being treated fairly.  We want to know that none of our neighbors are going to be hurt by the conversion and that we will not lose value in our homes or have our space rents go up beyond the annual increases called for in our leases.

With the hope that we can all begin to separate fact from fallacy, I'm starting a series focused on some of the issues we seem to talk about most and each issue will be a separate post for easy reading.  Please feel free to comment … together we're smarter than any one of us.

FALLACY:  "We're buying 18 inches of dirt."

Words can sometimes lead us astray … this molehill of fact is used to distract us from a mountain of truth.  

Mesa Dunes is a 50-acre mobile home park where almost 40% of the park is devoted to common space, including 2 clubhouses, 2 pools, a BBQ picnic area (with a fabulous view), a playground, green space, walking trails, guest and RV parking space, a laundromat, roads, water system, sewer system and all those "substandard" lights Jeff mentioned last night.

FACT:  Details of the 19.01 acres of common space is spelled out in The Department of Planning and Building New Project Referral document which was posted some time ago on the blog for your review.  Click here to view - page 4.   

FACT:  The "18 inches of dirt" is actually the depth marker of our individual lots … under that 18" lies not only more dirt but also the underground utilities that we all own in common.

Rumor has it that Jeff thinks the price for our "18 inches of dirt" should be in the $60-65K range.  He didn't mention that number last night but did allude to "much lower prices."  Just to be clear, I would gladly vote for him for King if he could pull that price off.  

So far, I have not been able to find even one data point that would let me believe that the reality of lot prices could be anywhere near $60,000.  While fantasy is a wonderful thing, when it comes to financial dealings, I prefer reality.  And, here's the reality I've found:

• Sunrise Terrace … shares (roughly equivalent to lots) $200,000 … years ago the shares started at  about $30,000 … land, or a share in land, tends to go up in value, especially when it's California Coastal real estate.

•  Bolsa Chica (on 227) … land values average $150,000.

•  Rancho Colinga (Morro Bay) … recent corner lot for sale $185,000.

•   Knollwood (Santa Maria) … lots are in the $120,000 - $140,000 range.

•   Pismo Beach (across from beach) … $250,000 for share price, again equivalent to a lot.

Let's negotiate the best prices we can get … but expecting the owners to sell lots for 1/3 of their actual market value just doesn't make sense. 

Affordable Housing

Paddle boarder at Shell Beach

This week's SLO Sunday Tribune features an article "High Housing Prices Lock Many Out of Ownership" stating that a buyer needs an income of at least $100,180 to afford a median priced ($487,500) home in SLO County.  A year ago, 37 percent of homebuyers in the county could afford a median priced home, now only 23 percent can. In spite of that, homes are selling so rapidly that the supply is severely limited.

The article is filled with interesting data, some of which will be listed below.  However, the important information for us here in Mesa Dunes is how this affects our thinking about the value of our homes, both before and after conversion. The primary driver in the change is the supply and demand for housing … right now there is more demand than supply.

South county tends to be more affordable than San Luis Obispo but it's location near the water and temperate climate keep it in the most desirable category.  Right now Oceano has a median price of $356,000 and Grover Beach's median is $382,900.

We've guesstimated that lot prices will fall in the $200,000 range.  With discounts for early purchase, prices could be closer to $175,000.  Add an average price of $100,000 for your coach and the average package price for a home in Mesa Dunes could be in the $275,000 range … or well under the median price range … especially when you consider the location and amenities of our park.  

Of course, if you have a greatly remodeled coach or extensive decking and a view, your home could be worth more, however, it would then compete with higher-end homes and still be attractive.

It's hard to imagine people buying properties in this price range, especially if our home was purchased many years ago.  However, while California real estate went down in 2008 when the building boom created a glut and the economy tanked throwing many people out of jobs and their homes, if I were going to put money on where prices would be ten or fifteen years from now, I wouldn't want to bet against the upward trend.

There are no guarantees in the world of real estate and investments, but this article makes it seem like Mesa Dunes will continue to be affordable housing even after conversion.

Today's Listings in Sunrise Terrace: (where the HOA is $175 per month)

Some people say that Mesa Dunes does not compare to Sunrise Terrace because their amenities are better.  They have lovely amenities and a beautiful club house.  However, if you haven't driven through it, I suggest doing so.  Somehow, it has a sun-baked feel to me and I much prefer Mesa Dunes.  Plus, it is an over-55 park, something I personally do not prefer.

374 Sunrise … $220,900 (with membership), 1440 square feet … probably 1970s unit

378 Sunrise … $174,500, 1440 square feet … probably 1970s unit.  This looks like a great deal.

816 Eaton … $265,000, 1640 square feet … upgraded

820 Innesley … $279,500, 1368 square feet

807 Muirfield … $295,000,  1440 square feet, remodeled and bonus room

350 Sunrise … $319,000, 1570 square feet, remodeled

251 Sunrise … $359,900,  1600 square feet