Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Let Us Remember

Remembering
On this day, chosen to celebrate the birth of a child of wisdom, a day that grew big enough to include people of all lands and all faiths into a universal embrace of peace and goodwill, let us remember.

Let us remember the lonely who are far from loved ones; let us remember those who are no longer with us but touched us with their love and spirit; let us remember the sick and injured and those who sacrifice this day of celebration to care for them; let us remember all who left a piece of themselves on a foreign battlefield; let us remember those who have no homes filled with lights and ribbons and bows tied around bright bits of love and joy; let us remember the hungry and hopeless; let us remember all who stand just outside the warmth of all Hallmark moments.

Today I celebrate with a woman who spent last year alone in a wheel chair, wondering if she would walk again, wondering if life was worth the effort, and a man who recently lost his wife and finds this time more bitter than sweet.  Together we will watch the story of a man who lost himself in fantasy and remind ourselves to remember sweet times and be grateful for the beauty of this day and the gift of living it.

Let us take this time to remember ... and re-member our spirits, our bodies, our communities and our world. 

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

What Are the Facts: #1 "18 Inches of Dirt"


Christmas Pumpkins

Last night's HOA meeting was, overall, a gentler meeting than we've experienced in the past. Questions and strong opinions were exchanged and a few new voices were heard.  If we could continue to meet in this manner, we might eventually establish a bedrock of facts that we could all stand on confidently. 

In the meantime though, we still seem to be focused primarily on opinion, fear and speculation. Large, public meetings do not give us enough time to explore thoroughly the facts that these complex questions require. 

I believe we all want the same thing … reliable information that will help us make our own decisions, an understanding of our rights and protections and a sense that we are being treated fairly.  We want to know that none of our neighbors are going to be hurt by the conversion and that we will not lose value in our homes or have our space rents go up beyond the annual increases called for in our leases.

With the hope that we can all begin to separate fact from fallacy, I'm starting a series focused on some of the issues we seem to talk about most and each issue will be a separate post for easy reading.  Please feel free to comment … together we're smarter than any one of us.

FALLACY:  "We're buying 18 inches of dirt."

Words can sometimes lead us astray … this molehill of fact is used to distract us from a mountain of truth.  

Mesa Dunes is a 50-acre mobile home park where almost 40% of the park is devoted to common space, including 2 clubhouses, 2 pools, a BBQ picnic area (with a fabulous view), a playground, green space, walking trails, guest and RV parking space, a laundromat, roads, water system, sewer system and all those "substandard" lights Jeff mentioned last night.
FACT:  Details of the 19.01 acres of common space is spelled out in The Department of Planning and Building New Project Referral document which was posted some time ago on the blog for your review.  Click here to view - page 4.   
FACT:  The "18 inches of dirt" is actually the depth marker of our individual lots … under that 18" lies not only more dirt but also the underground utilities that we all own in common.
Rumor has it that Jeff thinks the price for our "18 inches of dirt" should be in the $60-65K range.  He didn't mention that number last night but did allude to "much lower prices."  Just to be clear, I would gladly vote for him for King if he could pull that price off.  

So far, I have not been able to find even one data point that would let me believe that the reality of lot prices could be anywhere near $60,000.  While fantasy is a wonderful thing, when it comes to financial dealings, I prefer reality.  And, here's the reality I've found:
  • Sunrise Terrace … shares (roughly equivalent to lots) $200,000 … years ago the shares started at  about $30,000 … land, or a share in land, tends to go up in value, especially when it's California Coastal real estate.
  •  Bolsa Chica (on 227) … land values average $150,000.
  •  Rancho Colinga (Morro Bay) … recent corner lot for sale $185,000.
  •   Knollwood (Santa Maria) … lots are in the $120,000 - $140,000 range.
  •   Pismo Beach (across from beach) … $250,000 for share price, again equivalent to a lot.
Let's negotiate the best prices we can get … but expecting the owners to sell lots for 1/3 of their actual market value just doesn't make sense. 

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Affordable Housing

Paddle boarder at Shell Beach
This week's SLO Sunday Tribune features an article "High Housing Prices Lock Many Out of Ownership" stating that a buyer needs an income of at least $100,180 to afford a median priced ($487,500) home in SLO County.  A year ago, 37 percent of homebuyers in the county could afford a median priced home, now only 23 percent can. In spite of that, homes are selling so rapidly that the supply is severely limited.

The article is filled with interesting data, some of which will be listed below.  However, the important information for us here in Mesa Dunes is how this affects our thinking about the value of our homes, both before and after conversion. The primary driver in the change is the supply and demand for housing … right now there is more demand than supply.

South county tends to be more affordable than San Luis Obispo but it's location near the water and temperate climate keep it in the most desirable category.  Right now Oceano has a median price of $356,000 and Grover Beach's median is $382,900.

We've guesstimated that lot prices will fall in the $200,000 range.  With discounts for early purchase, prices could be closer to $175,000.  Add an average price of $100,000 for your coach and the average package price for a home in Mesa Dunes could be in the $275,000 range … or well under the median price range … especially when you consider the location and amenities of our park.  

Of course, if you have a greatly remodeled coach or extensive decking and a view, your home could be worth more, however, it would then compete with higher-end homes and still be attractive.

It's hard to imagine people buying properties in this price range, especially if our home was purchased many years ago.  However, while California real estate went down in 2008 when the building boom created a glut and the economy tanked throwing many people out of jobs and their homes, if I were going to put money on where prices would be ten or fifteen years from now, I wouldn't want to bet against the upward trend.

There are no guarantees in the world of real estate and investments, but this article makes it seem like Mesa Dunes will continue to be affordable housing even after conversion.

Today's Listings in Sunrise Terrace: (where the HOA is $175 per month)

Some people say that Mesa Dunes does not compare to Sunrise Terrace because their amenities are better.  They have lovely amenities and a beautiful club house.  However, if you haven't driven through it, I suggest doing so.  Somehow, it has a sun-baked feel to me and I much prefer Mesa Dunes.  Plus, it is an over-55 park, something I personally do not prefer.

374 Sunrise … $220,900 (with membership), 1440 square feet … probably 1970s unit
378 Sunrise … $174,500, 1440 square feet … probably 1970s unit.  This looks like a great deal.
816 Eaton … $265,000, 1640 square feet … upgraded
820 Innesley … $279,500, 1368 square feet
807 Muirfield … $295,000,  1440 square feet, remodeled and bonus room
350 Sunrise … $319,000, 1570 square feet, remodeled
251 Sunrise … $359,900,  1600 square feet